The Odds of Making a Straight in Poker

Odds of Making a Straight on the Later Streets

The probability of making a Straight on the later streets depends on the type of draw we flop. Open-ended Straight draws (OESD) have 8 outs, while gutshots have 4 outs.

Odds of hitting from flop to turn

Odds of hitting an open-ended Straight draw from flop to turn = 8/47 = 0.1702 or about 17%

Odds of hitting a gutshot from flop to turn = 4/47 = 0.0851 or about 8.5%

Odds of hitting from turn to river

Odds of hitting an open-ended Straight draw from turn to river = 8/46 = 0.1739 or about 17.4%

Odds of hitting a gutshot from turn to river = 4/46 = 0.087 or about 8.7%

Odds of hitting from flop to river

Here we will use the simple trick of calculating the probability of not hitting and deducting it from 100%.

Probability of not hitting an OESD on the turn = 39/47

Probability of not hitting an OESD on the river = 38/46

Probability of not hitting a gutshot on the turn or river = 39/47 * 38/46 = 0.6855 or 68.5%

Probability of not hitting a gutshot on the turn = 43/47

Probability of not hitting a gutshot on the river = 42/46

Probability of not hitting a gutshot on the turn or river = 43/47 * 42/46 = 0.8353 or 83.5%

Therefore -

The probability of hitting a gutshot on the turn or river = (100 – 83.5) roughly 26.5%

The probability of hitting an OESD on the turn or river = (100 – 68.5) roughly 31.5%

Implied Odds Analysis of a Straight

Straights are powerful hands in Hold’em and are nearly always good enough to invest our 100bb stack on when hitting. Hence, they have exceptional implied odds.

However, it’s important to remember that not all Straights are equal in the implied odds department. There are several important factors to be kept in mind.

Nutted-ness – A nut Straight is always more valuable than a non-nut Straight. For example, on a 789 texture, the implied odds value of a Straight will be ranked in the following order, from highest to lowest.

Texture 789

Hand 1 - JT -- Best implied odds. This hand will beat all other Straights on the texture.

Hand 2 - T6 – In the middle.

Hand 3 - 65 – Worst implied odds. This hand may end up dominated by better Straights.

2-card or 1-card – Straights vary heavily in strength based on whether they are formulated with one or both of our hole cards. Straights formed with only one of our hole cards implies that there must be a “four to Straight” texture on the board such as 5678x, or TJKAx.

In such circumstances, our Straight is more visible, or “transparent” since only one card is needed. Therefore, our opponent may easily give us more credit for making the Straight (making it harder to get paid off).

To make a Straight on a texture such as QT8xx requires us to hold two cards of precise rank, so our opponent may be less inclined to give us credit (and hence more likely to pay us off).

Basic Strategy Advice

However, certain weaker Straights might not be worth losing our stack over - specifically, the non-nut one-card Straight.

Example: Board 789T42

Our Hand: 63

Yes, we have a Straight here, but our opponents just need a single Jack in the hole to make a higher Straight.

In such circumstances, we are not necessarily committed with our Straight assuming 100bb effective stacks (although it naturally depends somewhat on the action).